As the world commemorates World Population Day, a United Nations initiative launched in 1989 to raise awareness about population and development challenges, the latest 2024 United Nations population estimates position Türkiye as a significant player in global demographics.

With a population of 85.66 million, Türkiye ranks 18th among 194 countries, contributing 1.0% to the global population of approximately 8.1 billion. This milestone, marked annually on July 11 since the world’s population reached 5 billion in 1987, underscores the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) efforts to highlight critical population trends and their implications for sustainable development.

Globally, India leads as the most populous nation with 1.45 billion people, followed closely by China with 1.42 billion and the United States with 345.43 million. Together, these three nations account for 39.4% of the world’s population, illustrating the concentration of global inhabitants in a handful of countries. Türkiye’s population, while modest in comparison, reflects a dynamic demographic structure with notable distinctions in child, youth, and elderly populations, as well as fertility rates and life expectancy, particularly when compared to global and European Union (EU) averages.

Child Population: Türkiye Outpaces EU, Trails Global Average

The proportion of children (ages 0-17) in a country’s population offers insight into its future workforce and societal needs. In 2024, the Central African Republic holds the highest proportion of child population at 56.5%, driven by high fertility rates and limited access to education and healthcare. Niger follows at 53.7%, with Somalia and Mali both at 53.2%, reflecting similar demographic pressures in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the Republic of Korea has the lowest child population proportion at 13.2%, followed by Japan (14.2%) and Singapore (14.7%), where aging populations and low birth rates dominate.

The global average for child population stands at 29.6%. Türkiye, with a child population proportion of 25.5%, falls below this global benchmark but surpasses all 27 EU member states. Within the EU, Ireland leads with 22.7%, followed by Sweden (20.5%) and France (20.2%), reflecting relatively higher birth rates in these countries. At the lower end, Italy (14.8%), Malta (15.6%), and Portugal (15.7%) face challenges associated with aging populations and declining birth rates. Türkiye’s higher child population compared to the EU suggests a more youthful demographic, which could provide long-term economic advantages if supported by investments in education and employment opportunities.

Youth Population: Türkiye Edges Out EU, Slightly Below Global Average

The youth population (ages 15-24) is a critical indicator of a country’s potential for innovation and economic growth. In 2024, Syria leads with the highest youth population proportion at 23.5%, a reflection of its young demographic despite ongoing challenges. South Sudan (22.9%) and the Central African Republic (22.4%) follow, driven by high fertility rates. Conversely, Monaco has the lowest youth proportion at 8.7%, followed by Malta (9.0%) and Qatar (9.2%), where wealth, urbanization, and aging populations reduce youth shares.

The global youth population average is 15.6%. Türkiye, with a youth proportion of 14.9%, is just below this figure but ranks higher than all EU countries. In the EU, Ireland leads with 13.3%, followed by France (12.3%) and the Netherlands and Denmark (both 12.1%). Malta (9.0%), Germany (9.5%), and Slovenia (9.7%) have the lowest youth proportions, reflecting Europe’s aging demographic. Türkiye’s relatively robust youth population positions it favorably for future economic dynamism, provided there are sufficient opportunities for education, skills development, and job creation.

Elderly Population: Türkiye Below EU, Slightly Above Global Average

The proportion of elderly individuals (ages 65 and older) highlights the challenges of aging populations, including healthcare and pension demands. Monaco leads globally with 36.2% of its population being elderly, followed by Japan (29.8%) and Italy (24.6%), nations known for high life expectancy and low fertility rates. At the opposite end, Qatar (1.7%), the United Arab Emirates (1.8%), and Zambia (1.9%) have the lowest elderly proportions, driven by high birth rates and younger populations.

The global elderly population average is 10.2%. Türkiye, with 10.6%, slightly exceeds this figure but remains significantly below the EU average. In the EU, Italy (24.6%), Portugal (24.5%), and Greece and Finland (both 23.9%) have the highest elderly proportions, reflecting advanced healthcare systems and low fertility rates. Cyprus (14.6%), Luxembourg (15.5%), and Ireland (15.9%) have the lowest elderly shares in the EU. Türkiye’s relatively low elderly population suggests fewer immediate pressures on pension and healthcare systems compared to the EU, but ongoing demographic shifts may increase these demands in the future.

Fertility Rates: Türkiye Below Global Average, Above EU

The total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children a woman is expected to have, is a key driver of population growth. In 2024, Chad leads with a TFR of 6.03 children, followed by Somalia (6.01) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.98), reflecting high birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa. The Republic of Korea has the lowest TFR at 0.73 children, followed by Singapore (0.95) and Ukraine (0.99), where urbanization, education, and economic pressures suppress birth rates.

The global TFR average is 2.25 children. Türkiye’s TFR of 1.48 children is below this benchmark but exceeds the EU average. In the EU, Bulgaria leads with a TFR of 1.75, followed by Romania (1.71) and France (1.64). Malta (1.11), Italy and Lithuania (both 1.21), and Spain (1.22) have the lowest fertility rates, signaling potential population declines without immigration. Türkiye’s higher TFR compared to the EU suggests a more sustainable population growth trajectory in the short term, though it remains below the replacement level of 2.1 children needed to maintain population size without immigration.

Life Expectancy: Türkiye Above Global Average, Below EU

Life expectancy at birth reflects healthcare quality, living standards, and societal well-being. Globally, the 2024 average life expectancy is 73.3 years—70.7 years for males and 76.0 years for females. Monaco leads for males (84.6 years) and females (88.6 years), followed by San Marino (84.3 years for males) and Japan (87.9 years for females). Chad (53.4 years for males) and Nigeria (54.9 years for females) have the lowest life expectancies, driven by poverty, conflict, and limited healthcare access.

In Türkiye, male life expectancy is 74.7 years and female life expectancy is 80.0 years, both surpassing global averages but falling below EU standards. In the EU, Italy (81.8 years) and Spain (86.4 years) lead for males and females, respectively, while Lithuania (71.4 years) and Bulgaria (79.4 years) have the lowest. Türkiye’s life expectancy reflects improvements in healthcare and living standards but highlights a gap with the EU, where advanced medical systems and higher per capita income contribute to longer lives.

Implications for Türkiye and the Global Stage

Türkiye’s demographic profile—characterized by a youthful population, moderate fertility rate, and improving life expectancy—positions it as a dynamic player in both regional and global contexts. Its higher child and youth proportions compared to the EU suggest a potential demographic dividend, where a large working-age population could drive economic growth if supported by robust education and job creation policies. However, its aging population, though currently modest, signals future challenges in healthcare and pension systems, particularly as fertility rates remain below replacement levels.

Globally, the data underscores stark disparities. High-fertility, youthful nations like Chad and the Central African Republic face challenges in providing education and jobs, while aging societies like Monaco and Japan grapple with shrinking workforces and rising healthcare costs. Türkiye, straddling these extremes, has an opportunity to leverage its demographic strengths while addressing gaps in life expectancy and fertility to align more closely with EU standards.

As World Population Day prompts reflection on these trends, the UNFPA emphasizes the need for policies that address population dynamics—education, healthcare, gender equality, and economic opportunity—to ensure sustainable development. For Türkiye, balancing its youthful energy with the demands of an aging population will be key to its future prosperity. (ILKHA)