The United Nations has issued a stark warning that South Sudan’s fragile peace process is unraveling amid surging violence, political deadlock, and a humanitarian catastrophe.

Speaking to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, described the situation as moving in a “negative and possibly dangerous direction.” He cited a sharp rise in ceasefire violations, including widespread aerial bombardments and clashes between signatories of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

“The unilateral removal of opposition appointees from the Transitional Government of National Unity, in clear violation of the peace agreement, has left First Vice-President Riek Machar and allied opposition leaders detained and facing trial,” Lacroix said. “Coupled with the escalating conflict in Sudan, these developments have deepened the trust deficit and pushed the peace process to the brink.”

The war in Sudan, which entered its 19th month as of November 2025, has displaced over 3.2 million people into neighboring countries, according to the latest UNHCR figures. More than 1.2 million refugees and returnees have crossed into South Sudan since April 2023, overwhelming communities already grappling with famine-like conditions and severe flooding. The UN reports that cross-border arms flows and militia movements linked to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have inflamed local conflicts in South Sudan’s northern border regions.

Lacroix warned that credible elections scheduled for December 2026 now appear “increasingly improbable,” urging South Sudanese leaders to recommit to dialogue and halt unilateral actions. “The Revitalized Agreement remains the only viable framework for lasting peace,” he stressed, “but time is running dangerously short.”

The humanitarian toll is staggering. Over 7.5 million people – nearly two-thirds of the population – face acute food insecurity, with 28,000 on the brink of famine in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile states. Flooding has displaced more than one million, while conflict-related sexual violence, arbitrary detentions, and extrajudicial killings continue with near-total impunity.

Sima Sami Bahous, Executive Director of UN Women, told the Council that women and girls are bearing the brunt of the crisis. “South Sudan has one of the highest rates of gender-based violence in the region, with 2.7 million people at risk,” she said. “Climate shocks, abductions, and systemic exclusion from political processes compound their suffering.”

Bahous warned that any reduction in peacekeeping support would disproportionately harm women and girls, calling for their full inclusion in peace talks and governance. “There is no more proven pathway to sustainable peace than women’s leadership,” she asserted.

The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has reported a 40% increase in protection incidents since July 2025, including attacks on civilian shelters and aid convoys. Despite a mandated troop strength of 17,000, operational constraints and funding shortfalls have limited patrols in high-risk areas.

Regional leaders, including the African Union and IGAD, have called for an emergency summit in early 2026 to salvage the peace process. Meanwhile, international donors have pledged $1.1 billion in humanitarian aid for 2026 – far short of the $1.8 billion requested.

As South Sudan approaches a critical juncture, the UN has urged global powers to intensify diplomatic pressure and support inclusive political reforms. “The cost of inaction will be measured in lives lost and a nation’s future undone,” Lacroix concluded. (ILKHA)