Türkiye’s government on Monday announced its Medium-Term Program (MTP), outlining an ambitious economic roadmap that aims to bring inflation down to single digits by 2027 while ensuring steady growth through 2028.

According to the program, inflation is projected to fall from 28.5% in 2025 to 16% in 2026, 9% in 2027, and 8% in 2028. Economic growth is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2025 due to tight monetary policy but rebound to 3.8% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027, and 5% by 2028.

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, presenting the program in Ankara, underlined the government’s commitment to disinflation, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms. “By the end of 2028, Türkiye’s economy will achieve lasting macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth,” Yılmaz said, forecasting GDP to approach $1.9 trillion and per capita income to reach $21,000.

Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek reiterated the government’s commitment to a floating exchange rate, stressing that interventions occur only to curb “extreme” volatility. He also dismissed market concerns over recent political developments, including the suspension of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leadership in Istanbul and the detention of Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu.

Official data shows inflation eased to 32.95% in August, though monthly increases surpassed expectations at 2.04%. Analysts expect the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) to limit rate cuts to 200 basis points this week, after reducing its policy rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July. Since mid-2023, Türkiye has shifted back toward orthodox economic policy, with interest rate hikes helping cut inflation nearly in half from its peak.

The roadmap includes reforms to promote digitalization, high-value-added industries, agricultural efficiency, and green transformation. Potential GDP growth is expected to increase by 0.5% through these reforms.

-Tourism revenues are forecast to rise from a record $64 billion this year to $75 billion by 2028.

-Exports are projected to reach $308.5 billion by 2028, up from $273.8 billion in 2025.

-Imports are expected to grow from $367 billion this year to $410.5 billion by 2028.

-Unemployment is projected to stabilize at 8.4% in 2026 and fall to 7.8% by 2028.

-Current account deficit is expected to narrow to $18.5 billion, or 1% of GDP, by 2028.

-Budget deficit is projected to widen to TL 2.81 trillion by 2028, equivalent to 2.8% of GDP.

Yılmaz emphasized that fiscal and monetary policies would remain aligned to achieve the program’s disinflation targets. “By 2028, Türkiye will achieve single-digit inflation, unemployment below 8%, and tourism revenues of $75 billion,” he said.

The MTP reflects Türkiye’s efforts to stabilize its economy after years of volatility, combining tighter monetary policy with structural reforms to ensure sustainable long-term growth. (ILKHA)