The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has published its November 2024 Market Participants Survey, shedding light on revised expectations for inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and economic growth.

The survey, which involved 68 participants from the financial and real sectors, indicated a rise in the year-end consumer price inflation (CPI) expectation to 44.81%, up from 44.11% in the previous survey.

However, long-term inflation expectations showed mixed trends. The 12-month forward CPI forecast edged slightly down to 27.2% from 27.44%, while the 24-month outlook increased to 18.33% from 18.08%, signaling ongoing concerns over inflationary pressures in the longer term.

Participants revised their year-end dollar-to-Turkish lira exchange rate forecast downward to ₺35.72, compared to the earlier estimate of ₺36.63.

On a 12-month horizon, the exchange rate expectation rose slightly to ₺42.75 from ₺42.73, reflecting marginal adjustments in currency market predictions.

The survey indicated no change in the central bank’s one-week repo rate expectation for November, holding steady at 50%.

Looking ahead, the 12-month forward rate projection declined to 30.84%, while the 24-month forecast dropped further to 21.07%, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy over time.

Economic growth forecasts remained largely stable. The GDP growth expectation for 2024 was maintained at 3.1%, while the 2025 growth forecast saw a slight downward revision to 3.2% from 3.3%.

The findings were based on input from 68 representatives, including 51 participants from the financial sector.

The CBRT’s Market Participants Survey provides valuable insights into economic trends and market sentiment, helping shape monetary policy discussions as Türkiye navigates a challenging economic landscape. (ILKHA)