Türkiye witnessed a continued and alarming decline in fertility in 2024, according to the latest figures released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on Tuesday.

The number of live births recorded last year was 937,559, marking a significant demographic shift as the country's total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to 1.48 children per woman — far below the replacement level of 2.10.

This is the eighth consecutive year Türkiye has remained beneath the threshold needed to sustain its population without migration, reinforcing concerns of a long-term demographic and economic impact. The TFR was 2.38 in 2001 but has consistently declined since 2014, reflecting broader global patterns of delayed marriage, urbanization, economic pressures, and evolving social norms.

Demographic Breakdown: A Country in Transition

According to the data, 51.4% of all births in 2024 were male, while 48.6% were female. The crude birth rate — the number of live births per 1,000 people — fell to 11.0, down from 20.3 in 2001.

The highest total fertility rate was observed in Şanlıurfa at 3.28 children per woman, making it the only province in Türkiye above the "three-child" mark. Şırnak (2.62) and Mardin (2.32) followed, continuing a regional trend where southeastern provinces display higher fertility rates. In stark contrast, the lowest TFRs were recorded in Bartın and Eskişehir, both at 1.12, followed by Zonguldak, Ankara, and İzmir.

Overall, 71 out of 81 provinces had fertility rates below the replacement level, up from 57 provinces in 2017. Even more striking is the jump in provinces with fertility rates below 1.50 — from just 4 in 2017 to 55 in 2024.

Educational Divide and Urban-Rural Gaps

Fertility continues to vary significantly based on education and geography. Women with no formal education had a fertility rate of 2.65, while the rate among university-educated mothers was just 1.22. This disparity reflects both economic aspirations and lifestyle differences across Türkiye's socio-economic spectrum.

Urbanization also plays a key role. In densely populated urban areas, the TFR stood at just 1.39, compared to 1.58 in intermediate-density zones and 1.83 in thinly populated rural regions. This suggests that rural areas, despite modernization, still uphold more traditional family patterns and structures.

Mothers Getting Older, Birth Intervals Increasing

The data also highlight a trend toward later motherhood. The mean age of mothers giving birth rose to 29.3 in 2024, up from 26.7 in 2001. The average age of first-time mothers was 27.3, with the highest age recorded in Tunceli (29.4) and the lowest in Şanlıurfa and Muş (24.4).

The average duration between births is also increasing. Mothers who gave their second child in 2024 waited 4.3 years after their first, and those having their third child did so 5.4 years after the second. These gaps were shortest in Şanlıurfa (2.7 years) and longest in Kırklareli (5.4 years), pointing again to significant regional and cultural differences.

Teenage Births Decline Sharply, but Multiple Births Rise

Adolescent fertility — births per 1,000 girls aged 15–19 — dropped to 10 in 2024 from 49 in 2001. This drop reflects improved access to education and reproductive health awareness, though regional disparities persist.

Meanwhile, multiple births, including twins and triplets, constituted 3.3% of all live births. Of these, 97% were twins, 2.9% were triplets, and a small fraction were quadruplets or more.

European Context: Türkiye Above EU Average but Slipping

Compared to the European Union, Türkiye still fares better in terms of fertility, ranking 9th among EU countries with its 1.48 TFR. In the EU, Bulgaria led with 1.81 children per woman, while Malta had the lowest at 1.06. Nevertheless, Türkiye’s rate, though relatively higher, is inching closer to the European average of 1.38 — a signal that the demographic challenges of aging and shrinking population are no longer limited to Western Europe.

Policy Challenges Ahead

Experts warn that a declining fertility rate will have serious implications for Türkiye’s long-term economic productivity, labor market stability, and social welfare systems. Without robust policy responses — such as better childcare support, incentives for working mothers, housing and education subsidies, and flexible working conditions — Türkiye could face the same demographic stagnation seen in parts of Europe and East Asia.

President Erdoğan has previously urged Turkish families to have at least three children to counteract the declining birthrate. Yet, the trend suggests that economic realities, shifting cultural values, and gender equity concerns are outweighing ideological appeals. (ILKHA)