In a report published Wednesday, CSIS said that critical systems—including Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, and Patriot air defense missiles—were heavily used during the conflict and will require more than three years to return to prewar inventory levels.

The analysis also found that other precision weapons, such as Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), were significantly expended and would take several months to a year to replace. Meanwhile, Standard Missile variants, including SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors, are expected to require around two years to fully restore stockpiles.

CSIS noted that more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles were used during the campaign, while production and delivery rates remain far below wartime consumption levels. Although the U.S. continues to procure new systems, the report emphasized that production timelines—not funding—are the primary constraint.

“The issue is not money but time,” the analysis stated, warning that expanding industrial capacity for complex missile systems cannot be achieved quickly. As a result, the Pentagon faces what CSIS described as a “window of vulnerability” until inventories are rebuilt.

The report further highlighted that the United States must also balance its own replenishment needs with ongoing commitments to allies, including Ukraine and other countries reliant on Patriot interceptors for air defense.

CSIS also pointed out that recent procurement plans under the U.S. defense budget and new industrial agreements aim to increase production capacity. However, even with expanded spending—reflected in proposals such as the administration’s $1.5 trillion FY2027 defense budget—the rebuilding process will still take years.

“The Department of Defense will need to make plans for dealing with this gap,” the report warned, noting that alternative munitions and systems may be used in the interim but often come with operational trade-offs.

The analysis concluded that while the U.S. military demonstrated strong operational effectiveness during the conflict, the depletion of high-end munitions could temporarily affect deterrence and readiness for potential future conflicts. (ILKHA)