Bulgarian President Iliana Yotova narrowly led the first round of the country's presidential election on Sunday, according to exit polls, setting up a runoff against pro-Western candidate Andrey Gyurov on November 1.

Yotova secured between 35% and 36.5% of the vote, while Gyurov, a banker and former caretaker prime minister, came second with between 32.2% and 32.5%, according to preliminary exit poll estimates.

The results fell short of pre-election expectations for Yotova, who had been projected to win between 41% and 47% of the vote. Gyurov had been polling between 28% and 31%.

Preliminary official results are expected to be published on Monday.

The campaign focused heavily on Russia's war in Ukraine, growing security concerns in the Black Sea and mounting economic pressures, including rising energy prices and inflation.

Recent drone attacks on commercial vessels off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast have heightened security concerns in the European Union and NATO member state. The incidents have also prompted calls for stronger maritime security and greater assistance from Bulgaria's international partners.

The election is widely viewed as a major test of Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party, which emerged victorious in parliamentary elections last April.

Yotova is backed by Radev's political camp and has advocated dialogue with Moscow while opposing military assistance to Ukraine. Her victory in the first round would strengthen the position of the prime minister and his supporters, who favor diplomatic engagement with Russia.

Gyurov, meanwhile, is supported by pro-Western opposition parties and has expressed strong backing for Ukraine. During his tenure as caretaker prime minister in the early months of 2026, he signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv.

A total of 27 candidates contested the presidential election, although Yotova and Gyurov emerged as the leading contenders.

Yotova assumed the presidency earlier this year after Radev stepped down to contest parliamentary elections, subsequently becoming prime minister.

A former journalist and member of the European Parliament, Yotova was elected vice president alongside Radev in 2016 and 2021. If she wins the runoff, she would become the first woman elected president in Bulgaria's history.

Gyurov, an economist and former deputy governor of Bulgaria's central bank, served as caretaker prime minister before the formation of the current government. His campaign has emphasized closer cooperation with Western partners and continued support for Ukraine.

Beyond foreign policy, economic concerns have played a central role in the campaign. Rising energy costs and inflation have intensified pressure on household budgets, particularly in rural areas, where many families are struggling to cope with the cost of living.

The runoff on November 1 is expected to determine whether Bulgaria moves closer to Radev's preference for dialogue with Moscow or strengthens the position of political forces advocating a more explicitly pro-Western approach to the war in Ukraine. (ILKHA)