Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, emerged victorious in Sunday’s snap federal election but secured a historically low vote share, according to exit polls.

Germany’s political landscape shifted dramatically as the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), alongside its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), clinched a bittersweet victory in a snap federal election, securing just 29% of the vote according to exit polls released precisely at 6:00 PM.

While the result handed CDU leader Friedrich Merz the top spot, it marked the party’s lowest share in modern history, thrusting him into a precarious position as he navigates the daunting task of forming a coalition government. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) celebrated a stunning rise, doubling its support to 19.5%, though falling short of the lofty expectations set by some pre-election forecasts. The night’s most seismic blow, however, struck Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), which plummeted to an unprecedented third place with a mere 16%—its worst performance ever in a federal election.

The exit polls laid bare a fractured electorate. The Green Party held steady at 13.5%, maintaining its relevance despite the tumult surrounding the collapse of Scholz’s coalition. Die Linke, a leftist party with roots in East Germany’s communist era, defied the odds with an unexpected surge to 8.5%, far surpassing pre-election projections of around 5%. On the flip side, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the liberal kingmaker whose departure from the previous “traffic light” coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP triggered this early vote, teetered on the brink of irrelevance at 4.9%. Falling just shy of the critical 5% threshold for parliamentary seats, the FDP’s misstep could see it sidelined entirely. Another casualty was the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a splinter group from Die Linke led by its namesake dissident, which floundered in the polls and appears unlikely to secure representation in the Bundestag.

As the exit polls flashed across screens nationwide, Germany’s political parties retreated to their respective election night gatherings, each marked by a distinct mood. At CDU headquarters, the mood was one of cautious optimism—a victory tinged with the sobering reality of a diminished mandate and the complex negotiations ahead. Merz, a seasoned politician with a reputation for fiscal conservatism, now faces the unenviable challenge of cobbling together a coalition in a parliament more divided than ever.

Across town, the AfD’s celebration was unbridled, though tempered by external tensions. Police cordoned off the party’s venue in Berlin after left-wing groups vowed to “interfere” with the festivities, a sign of the deep societal rifts the AfD’s rise has exposed. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel wasted no time claiming a historic shift, asserting minutes after the polls closed that her party had become “a mainstream force.” She extended a public invitation to the CDU, saying, “Our hand remains outstretched,” despite the CDU and other mainstream parties’ repeated vows to shun any alliance with the far right.

For the SPD, the night was one of reckoning. Once a titan of German politics, the party found itself relegated to an unprecedented third place, a humiliating fall for Scholz, whose leadership has been battered by economic stagnation and coalition infighting. The Greens, while steady, offered little solace to their former coalition partners, focusing instead on their own path forward. Die Linke’s surprising resurgence brought cheers from its supporters, particularly in the former East German states where its anti-establishment message still resonates. The FDP, meanwhile, grappled with the sting of near-exclusion, its gamble to force an election backfiring spectacularly.

With only five parties likely to secure seats in the Bundestag—CDU/CSU, AfD, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke—the arithmetic for forming a government is both limited and fraught. The CDU’s 29% and the AfD’s 19.5% together fall short of a majority, and even if Merz were to entertain a controversial pivot toward the far right—breaking his campaign pledge—he would still need a third party to reach the 50% mark. Merz has hinted at flexibility in the past, notably through a recent joint immigration proposal with the AfD, but such a move would risk alienating his base and the broader political establishment.

More plausible scenarios point to a three-party coalition. One option is a CDU-SPD-Greens alliance, reuniting the centre-right with two left-leaning parties in a reprise of past grand coalitions, albeit with the added tension of the Greens’ environmental priorities clashing with CDU economic policies. Another possibility is a CDU-SPD-Die Linke troika, a configuration that would bridge the centre-right with the socialist left—a pairing untested at the federal level and likely to spark fierce debate within all three parties. Both setups would demand significant compromise, testing Merz’s diplomatic skills and the patience of his coalition partners.

Merz is set to address the nation in a press conference on Monday morning, where he’s expected to shed light on his initial strategy. Political analysts anticipate weeks of intense horse-trading, with Germany’s stability—and its role as Europe’s economic powerhouse—hanging in the balance.

Sunday’s election reflects a Germany in transition, grappling with rising populism, economic uncertainty, and a fraying political centre. The AfD’s doubling of support underscores growing discontent, particularly over immigration and cost-of-living issues, though its pariah status limits its immediate influence. The SPD’s collapse signals the end of Scholz’s chapter, raising questions about the party’s future direction after years of declining relevance. Die Linke’s revival, meanwhile, suggests a lingering appetite for leftist alternatives, especially in the east, where economic disparities and historical grievances fuel its appeal.

For the CDU, the victory is a mandate tempered by vulnerability. At 29%, its lowest-ever result in a federal election, the party must now prove it can govern effectively in a fragmented Bundestag. The Greens, holding steady at 13.5%, remain a pivotal player, their climate agenda a potential bargaining chip in coalition talks. The FDP’s potential exclusion and the BSW’s flop further highlight the volatility of Germany’s smaller parties, leaving the big five to dominate the parliamentary fray.

As the dust settles, Germany braces for a period of uncertainty. Merz’s ability to forge a stable government will determine whether the CDU can reclaim its historical stature or if the nation drifts further into political instability. For now, the election has laid bare a divided electorate—and a future that remains fiercely contested. (ILKHA)