The political landscape of Germany is on the brink of a significant transformation as rival political leaders intensify their campaigns ahead of Sunday’s election.

This is not merely a contest for control of the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, but a referendum on the future of Europe’s largest democracy and economy at a time of profound uncertainty. The campaign’s frenetic close—conservative frontrunner Friedrich Merz rallying supporters in Munich, his rivals speed-dating voters on live television—underscores the urgency of a vote that could reshape Germany’s role in Europe and its response to twin crises of economic stagnation and rising far-right nationalism.

For months, German politics has been adrift, paralyzed by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP) late last year. The disintegration, triggered by irreconcilable differences over fiscal policy amid a lingering recession, forced this early election, originally slated for September. Now, with the European Union watching anxiously, Germans head to the polls hoping for clarity where there has been chaos. Yet, as history and polling suggest, clarity may remain elusive: no single party is poised to secure an outright majority in the 630-seat Bundestag, ensuring weeks of coalition haggling after the votes are tallied.

The Big Issues: Economy and Migration

Two issues have dominated the campaign, each a fault line exposing Germany’s vulnerabilities. The first is the economy, once the powerhouse of Europe, now mired in a recession that has persisted for two years. High energy costs, fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine, and competition from China have battered German industry, leaving voters desperate for a revival plan. Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democrat (CDU) leader and likely next chancellor, has leaned on his corporate credentials—years as a lawyer and BlackRock executive—to pitch himself as the pragmatic fix. He promises fiscal discipline tempered with modest reforms to Germany’s debt brake, a constitutional limit on borrowing that critics say strangles investment. Scholz, defending his record, touts a 100-billion-euro off-budget fund to modernize infrastructure, but his SPD trails badly, its credibility eroded by coalition infighting and economic woes.

The second issue, migration and security, has ignited passions and polarized the electorate. A string of deadly attacks since May 2024—in Mannheim, Solingen, Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg, and Munich—has thrust the debate into the spotlight. Each alleged perpetrator was an immigrant, fueling a surge in support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), led by Alice Weidel. Polling at around 20%, the AfD could double its parliamentary seats to 150, a seismic shift in a country where the postwar consensus has long shunned extremist parties. Weidel’s nationalist, anti-immigration rhetoric—calls to “secure borders” and deport criminals, laced with the provocative term “remigration”—resonates with voters frustrated by perceived failures in integration and security. Her social media savvy, particularly on TikTok where she boasts 870,000 followers, has won over younger demographics, amplifying her reach.

The Players: Merz, Scholz, and Weidel

Merz, 69, enters election day as the frontrunner, his CDU/CSU alliance hovering around 30% in polls. At his final rally in Munich, he cast himself as a steady hand, vowing to restore Germany’s leadership in Europe while consigning the AfD to the margins. Yet his recent flirtation with far-right support—relying on AfD votes to pass a non-binding migration motion in January—has dented his credibility. Critics, including Scholz and even former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel, accuse him of breaching the “firewall” against extremist cooperation, a taboo rooted in Germany’s postwar democratic ethos. Merz insists he neither sought nor wants AfD backing, but the episode has raised doubts about his coalition-building prospects and his ability to unify a fractured nation.

Olaf Scholz, the incumbent chancellor, is fighting an uphill battle. His SPD languishes in third place at 16%, a steep fall from its 2021 victory. At 66, Scholz pins his slim hopes on the one in five undecided voters, urging them in the campaign’s final hours to bolster the SPD for a “strong government.” His tenure, marked by the Zeitenwende—a historic pivot in defense policy post-Ukraine invasion—has been overshadowed by economic struggles and coalition collapse. A grand coalition with Merz’s CDU remains his likeliest path to relevance, though probably without him at the helm; SPD leaders like Bavarian Markus Söder have signaled Scholz’s exclusion as a condition.

Alice Weidel, 46, embodies the AfD’s ascendance. Backed by figures like Elon Musk and U.S. Vice President JD Vance—whose endorsements have sparked cries of foreign interference—Weidel has transformed the AfD from a fringe euroskeptic outfit into a potent force. Her platform, blending border closures with anti-EU and pro-Russia stances, taps into anger over immigration and cost-of-living pressures. Yet the AfD’s isolation—shunned by all mainstream parties—limits its governing prospects, relegating it to a disruptive opposition role even if it surges past 20%.

A Nation Divided, a Europe Watching

Friday night in Solingen, where a Syrian asylum-seeker allegedly killed three last August, hundreds gathered to protest the far right’s rise. “We don’t want our borders closed,” said Natalie, 35, echoing fears of exclusion for immigrant families. Jochen, wielding a sign reading “Never Again is Now!”—a nod to Germany’s Nazi past—captured the visceral stakes. A heavy police presence underscored the tension, with union spokesmen warning of attacks aimed at destabilizing democracy itself. These scenes reflect a broader divide: between those who see immigration as a threat and those who view openness as intrinsic to modern Germany.

Europe, too, holds its breath. Germany’s economic and political stability anchors the EU, and a prolonged post-election deadlock could weaken the bloc amid challenges like Ukraine’s war, climate goals, and U.S. policy shifts under Donald Trump. Merz’s pledge of European responsibility contrasts with Weidel’s anti-EU fervor, while Scholz’s cautious diplomacy straddles the middle. The outcome will ripple far beyond Berlin.

The Road Ahead: Coalitions and Compromises

Sunday’s vote will not end Germany’s uncertainty; it will merely shift it to the negotiating table. A CDU-SPD grand coalition, potentially with the Greens or FDP, is the most probable outcome, though the FDP teeters near the 5% threshold for parliamentary entry. The Greens, at 13% under Robert Habeck, offer a progressive counterweight but clash with Merz on migration and fiscal policy. Weeks of talks loom, testing Germany’s knack for consensus—a hallmark of its postwar success now strained by polarization.

As Germans cast their ballots, they weigh not just party platforms but a deeper question: what kind of nation do they wish to be? The answer, forged in this election and its aftermath, will echo through Europe for years to come. (ILKHA)