A landmark survey published Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has exposed a historic low in transatlantic relations, with just 11% of Europeans across 15 countries considering the United States an ally.

The poll, released on Wednesday ahead of upcoming G7 and NATO summits, found that only 11 percent of Europeans across 15 surveyed countries now regard the United States as an ally. The figure marks a sharp decline from 16 percent six months ago and 22 percent in November 2024, reflecting mounting uncertainty about the future of transatlantic relations.

The findings come at a time when European governments are increasingly debating how to strengthen their own defense structures amid geopolitical instability, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and concerns over the long-term reliability of American security commitments.

Europeans Question US Security Guarantees

One of the survey's most striking findings was the widespread skepticism regarding Washington's willingness to defend European nations in the event of an attack.

Majorities in all countries surveyed expressed doubts that the United States would automatically come to their defense under a future security crisis. Analysts say the results indicate a significant erosion of public confidence in the transatlantic security architecture that has underpinned European defense since the end of World War II.

The findings are particularly significant as NATO prepares for critical discussions on burden-sharing, military modernization, and deterrence strategies at its upcoming summit.

Growing Support for Higher Defense Spending

The survey also found increasing support for strengthening Europe's own military capabilities.

Across the continent, respondents were four percentage points more likely than last year to support increased national defense spending. While support varied between countries, only Italy showed a clear majority opposed to allocating additional resources to defense.

The shift reflects growing concerns over security threats on Europe's borders and a perception that European nations may need to assume greater responsibility for their own protection.

Support was also strong for collective European financing mechanisms aimed at strengthening defense industries and military readiness. Nearly half of respondents—47 percent—favored joint European Union borrowing to fund defense projects.

Portugal recorded the highest level of support at 59 percent, followed by Denmark at 56 percent and the Netherlands at 55 percent.

Push for "Buying European"

A significant majority of respondents supported reducing dependence on American-made military equipment and increasing purchases from European defense manufacturers.

Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden recorded some of the strongest support for prioritizing European defense industries, a trend that aligns with recent efforts by EU institutions to expand domestic arms production and reduce external dependence.

Poland stood out as the only surveyed country where a majority favored increasing purchases of American weapons systems, reflecting Warsaw's traditionally close security relationship with Washington.

Germany, Italy, and Hungary displayed more divided opinions on the issue, highlighting ongoing debates within Europe regarding the balance between NATO cooperation and strategic autonomy.

Economic Concerns Shape Defense Debate

Despite growing support for stronger defense capabilities, many Europeans remain reluctant to finance military expansion through reductions in domestic public spending.

Opposition to cutting social programs in order to increase defense budgets remained particularly high in Italy, Austria, and Germany, where majorities expressed concern about the economic consequences of higher military expenditures.

The findings suggest that while Europeans increasingly recognize the need for stronger defense structures, there remains considerable debate about how those efforts should be funded.

Energy Security and Relations with Russia

The survey also explored public attitudes toward energy policy and relations with Russia.

Forty-four percent of respondents opposed resuming oil and gas imports from Russia, even if doing so could lower energy costs. The results indicate that concerns over energy dependence and geopolitical security continue to shape European attitudes despite ongoing economic pressures.

European governments have spent the past several years diversifying energy supplies and reducing reliance on Russian imports following the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict.

Continued Support for Ukraine

Support for Ukraine remains broadly strong across Europe, with most respondents viewing Kyiv as either an ally or an important strategic partner.

However, public consensus becomes less clear when discussing future commitments such as deploying European peacekeeping forces after the war or supporting further eastward expansion of the European Union.

These divisions reflect broader debates about the long-term political, military, and financial implications of supporting Ukraine's reconstruction and integration into European institutions.

Expectations for the Future of US-European Relations

Despite current skepticism toward Washington, most Europeans remain optimistic about the long-term future of transatlantic relations.

In every country surveyed except Bulgaria, majorities said they expected relations between Europe and the United States to improve after the end of President Donald Trump's administration.

The findings suggest that many Europeans distinguish between broader US-European ties and current political leadership, maintaining hope that future governments could rebuild trust and cooperation.

Survey Details

The poll was conducted in May 2026 among adults aged 18 and over in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Research was carried out using a combination of polling methods by organizations including Mandate Research and YouGov.

Political analysts say the results highlight a historic turning point in European public opinion. As governments prepare for major international summits and increasingly invest in defense initiatives, the survey suggests that calls for greater European strategic autonomy are no longer limited to policymakers but are gaining traction among the broader public.

With NATO leaders set to meet in the coming weeks and European defense integration moving higher on the political agenda, the findings are expected to influence discussions about the future shape of security cooperation on both sides of the Atlantic. (ILKHA)