European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has issued a stark warning to European Union leaders, urging them to swiftly approve a massive €135.7 billion support package for Ukraine, as projections indicate Kyiv's military and economic needs will surge dramatically in 2026 and 2027.

In a letter to the bloc's 27 member states, von der Leyen emphasized that any delay in agreeing to the package would have "serious strategic consequences," and called for its adoption at the upcoming European Council summit in December. The appeal comes amid assessments that Russia's full-scale invasion could continue until at least the end of 2026, a scenario for which the EU must prepare.

According to Commission projections based on estimates from the IMF and Ukrainian authorities, Ukraine will require a total of €138.6 billion over the next two years. This breaks down into €83.4 billion in critical military aid and €55.2 billion in economic and budgetary support to keep the country's essential services and infrastructure afloat.

To meet this immense financial challenge, von der Leyen outlined three potential financing options for EU leaders to consider. The first is €90 billion in bilateral contributions, which member states would provide as grants through their national budgets.

The second involves the EU issuing €90 billion in joint debt, backed by national guarantees or the shared EU budget—an approach similar to the pandemic recovery fund but one that requires unanimous approval and faces strong resistance, particularly from Hungary.

The third option is a €140 billion compensation-based credit mechanism funded through revenues generated by Russia's frozen central bank assets, most of which are held at the Euroclear depository in Belgium. Under this model, Ukraine would only repay the loan once Russia accepts responsibility for war damages, a method von der Leyen argues would prevent additional debt burdens on EU member states.

While the third option is seen by many as politically and fiscally attractive, it has encountered a significant hurdle: Belgium. The Belgian government has expressed hesitancy, citing concerns over potential legal challenges from Moscow and demanding stronger collective safeguards before it will approve the use of the frozen asset revenues.

Diplomats reported that recent discussions between von der Leyen and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever yielded "limited progress," setting the stage for tough negotiations ahead of the December summit.

The Commission warned that failure to unite behind a credible financing plan would not only risk undermining Europe's geopolitical credibility but also weaken Ukraine's ability to resist ongoing Russian aggression.

"Europe cannot afford hesitation or paralysis," von der Leyen wrote, calling for decisive unity from the bloc.

The urgency of the long-term planning comes even as the EU continues its current support. Officials confirmed Ukraine recently received a €3.2 billion payment under the Ukraine Facility program, but Brussels acknowledges that existing mechanisms are insufficient for the scale of assistance needed in the coming years. (ILKHA)