Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, emerging as the strongest political force by a commanding margin and bringing the party closer than ever to leading a state government in postwar Germany.

Exit polls released after Sunday's election put the AfD at around 44.4–44.5%, more than double its 2021 result of 20.8%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has governed the state for decades, suffered a major setback, falling to roughly 18.3–18.5%.

The result represents the AfD's strongest performance in a German state election and a major political breakthrough for the party, which has been classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence authorities in Saxony-Anhalt. However, whether the AfD can actually form a government remains unresolved because the final seat distribution depends on the completed count and the party has so far failed to secure an undisputed governing majority.

Historic Breakthrough for the AfD

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund has described the result as a historic turning point and presented the election as evidence of growing public rejection of Germany's established political parties.

Siegmund had previously said he would seek the position of minister-president only if the AfD won an absolute majority and could govern alone. Mainstream parties, meanwhile, have maintained the so-called "firewall" against cooperation with the AfD, making coalition negotiations highly difficult.

The CDU has ruled out cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), however, has taken a considerably more open position toward parliamentary cooperation with the AfD, although it has stopped short of formally endorsing an AfD-led coalition.

That leaves Saxony-Anhalt facing a potentially complicated process of government formation if the AfD falls short of an outright majority.

A Major Setback for Chancellor Merz

The election is also a serious blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU.

The party's support has fallen dramatically from the 37.1% it received in the 2021 state election to less than 19% in Sunday's vote, according to exit projections. The collapse comes despite Merz's efforts to respond to the AfD's rise by adopting tougher positions on migration, security and asylum policy.

The result underscores the growing political divide between eastern and western Germany and reflects broader dissatisfaction with the established parties over migration, economic conditions, security and the government's policies toward Russia and Ukraine.

The AfD has capitalized heavily on those concerns, presenting itself as an alternative to what it describes as the failed policies of Berlin.

Russia and Ukraine at the Center of the Political Divide

The election also carries significant implications for Germany's policy toward Russia and Ukraine.

The AfD has repeatedly called for restoring economic and political ties with Moscow and ending or sharply reducing German support for Ukraine. In Saxony-Anhalt, the party's campaign has linked the economic consequences of the Ukraine war with Germany's loss of access to relatively cheap Russian energy.

Siegmund has also criticized Germany's migration and refugee policies and has called for substantial reductions in spending on asylum and integration.

The party's growing strength therefore represents a direct challenge to Merz's foreign-policy approach. The German government has positioned itself among Ukraine's most important European supporters, while the AfD argues that Berlin's confrontation with Moscow has damaged German economic and security interests.

Reuters reported ahead of the election that Russia had become a particularly important political dividing line in eastern Germany, where historical ties to the former Soviet sphere continue to shape parts of the electorate's perceptions of Moscow.

What an AfD Government Could Mean for Ukraine

An AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt would not have the authority to determine Germany's national foreign or defense policy. Berlin would remain responsible for decisions concerning military assistance to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and Germany's broader NATO strategy.

Nevertheless, an AfD government could acquire influence at the federal level through the Bundesrat, Germany's upper legislative chamber, because state governments participate in Bundesrat voting. The AfD would therefore gain an important institutional platform if it succeeds in taking control of the state government.

This distinction is important: the AfD has not simply won a Bundesrat seat through Sunday's election. Its potential influence in the Bundesrat would depend on whether it becomes part of the Saxony-Anhalt government and controls the state's votes there.

Such a development would nevertheless give the party greater leverage over legislation requiring Bundesrat approval and could strengthen its ability to challenge Berlin's policies.

Refugees and Migration Under Pressure

Migration was one of the central issues in the AfD's campaign.

Siegmund has promised a significant tightening of migration and asylum policies, arguing that public resources should be redirected toward German citizens. He has also called for reductions in spending on asylum, integration and migration programs.

The AfD's position has generated concern among migrant communities in the state, particularly as Saxony-Anhalt depends on foreign workers in several sectors of its economy.

Economists have warned that the state's demographic challenges and labor shortages could make an aggressively restrictive migration policy economically difficult to sustain. The region's healthcare, industrial, tourism and other sectors already depend on attracting workers from outside the state.

The "Firewall" Faces Its Biggest Test

The most immediate question following the AfD's historic result is whether Germany's political "firewall" can withstand the pressure.

For decades, Germany's mainstream parties have refused to cooperate with the AfD, citing the country's history and the party's classification as extremist. Sunday's result, however, has given the AfD a level of electoral strength that will make excluding it from government considerably more difficult.

If the party wins an outright majority after the final count, the traditional firewall would effectively cease to be an obstacle to an AfD-only government in Saxony-Anhalt.

If it falls short, the pressure will shift to other parties, particularly the BSW, which has indicated greater willingness to cooperate with the AfD on individual issues.

AfD's Rise Extends Beyond Saxony-Anhalt

The significance of the election extends well beyond the state's borders.

The AfD has been gaining support across eastern Germany and is also positioning itself for further gains in upcoming elections, including the September 20 vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

At the national level, the party's rise has increasingly transformed it from a protest movement into a serious contender for political influence. Its success in Saxony-Anhalt is therefore likely to intensify pressure on Merz's government and force Germany's established parties to reassess how they respond to the growing appeal of the far right.

For Ukraine, the development is particularly significant. Germany remains one of Kyiv's most important European military and political supporters, while any increase in the influence of a party advocating closer ties with Moscow could complicate the political consensus behind continued assistance.

A Turning Point for German Politics

Saxony-Anhalt's election marks a dramatic shift in Germany's political landscape.

The AfD has not yet demonstrated that it can form a government, and the final parliamentary balance remains dependent on the completion of the vote count. But its historic result has already shattered previous electoral barriers and demonstrated the scale of its support in one of Germany's eastern states.

The election also sends a warning to Chancellor Merz: Germany's political center is under growing pressure from both the right and the left, while dissatisfaction over migration, economic conditions and the war in Ukraine is increasingly reshaping the electorate.

Whether the AfD ultimately governs Saxony-Anhalt or remains in opposition, its breakthrough has already changed the political equation — and could have consequences for Germany's domestic politics, its relationship with Russia and the future of European support for Ukraine. (ILKHA)